Are Clergy Part of the Homo Economicus Clan?

Are clergy part of the homo economicus clan? Do they respond to resources constraints, incentives, and opportunity costs?  A new study  sheds some light on this issue by examining  whether individuals considering seminary enrollment respond to something more than just a 'higher calling.'  Specifically, this study assesses whether prospective seminarians are responsive to wage differentials and swings in the business cycle.  Here is the abstract:

Heeding the Call: Seminary Enrollment and the Business Cycle by D.R. Hughes, D.T. Mitchell, and D.P. Molinari
We examine a panel of divinity school enrollments to explore the motivations of prospective clergy considering post-graduate training in preparation for the ministry. Employing the fixed-effects within estimator allows us to see pecuniary motivations while controlling for the differences between types of divinity school and denomination. We find decisions by prospective clergy to enroll in seminary are responsive to changes in the business cycle as well as salaries. Our results reinforce the view that variation in opportunity costs associated with business cycles plays a significant role in the timing of human capital formation even for those with mostly nonmonetary motivations.

So yes, prospective seminarians are responsive on the margin to market signals. They too are part of the homo economicus clan.  These findings are consistent with those studies that show there is a countercyclical component to religiosity.

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Religiosity and the Business Cycle, Again

Ryan Avent and and Ezra Klein both take note of this Lisa Miller article in Newsweek that discusses what appears to be countercyclical  religiosity.  Here, religiosity is measured by church attendance.  If you read the piece you may note that it addition to citing Daniel Hungerman, an economist who is known for his scholarly work on the economics of religion, it also briefly  quotes me.  If you noticed this quote in the article you  probably wondered to yourself "What the heck is Beckworth doing in this piece? Isn't he the Fed-criticizing, nominal GDP-target loving, saving-glut thesis critiquing macroeconomist who blogs from Texas?" Well, yes but it also just so happens that a few years ago I dabbled in the economics of religion where I specifically looked at the relationship between the business cycle and religiosity.  My timing was impeccable given the arrival of the Great Recession and as result my research got some media attention. That is why I got cited in the Newsweek piece. 

In my first foray into this issue I found that religiosity--as measured by weekly attendance and membership growth--was countercyclical especially for folks who hold more absolute beliefs. In my second foray I expanded my study of the business cycle-religiosity link by looking at manifestations of religiosity through both giving of time (e.g. church attendance) and giving of funds (e.g. tithes and offerings) to religious activities.  Here I found that for religious folks giving of time and money act as substitutes in response to economic shocks.  For example, if the economy is booming  and is making  one's time more precious then giving of funds to religious causes increases and giving of time decreases. On the other hand, during a downturn, time becomes less costly and financial giving more costly  so the opposite happens.  

Now the opportunity costs story outlined above is not the only way to interpret these findings. Another reason why church attendance may increase during recessions is that folks are engaged in consumption smoothing as religious communities can act as a form of social insurance. Individuals may turn to churches  for consumption needs such as shelter and groceries as well as intangible consumption needs such as a sense of certainty. Daniel Hungerman in the article mentions another reason may be an increased awareness of community during hard times that pulls people to church. I suspect there is some truth in all of these stories. Here is an earlier post I did on this issue.

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The Economist Magazine on Church Attendance During the Recession

The Economist's magazine is reporting on how the recession is affecting church attendance and more-or-less concludes there is no evidence of a link. The article, however, has a number of problems. Let me begin with this paragraph:

Last year David Beckworth, an assistant professor of Economics at Texas State University, examined historic patterns in the size of evangelical congregations and found that, during each recession cycle between 1968 and 2004, membership of evangelical churches jumped by 50%. This report filled the newspapers and TV news-shows at the height of the depression panic just before Christmas; but the report’s findings focused on evangelicals, and do not apply to Americans at large.

I did not find membership jumps by 50% during recessions, rather the membership growth rate jumps by that amount. Moreover, while that 50% bump in the growth rate applies only to evangelicals this finding was only part of my study. In fact, the first part of my paper uses a national Pew Survey taken in November 2001 to see if after controlling for evangelicals, 911, and a host of other confounding factors whether one's employment status affects the likelihood of weekly attendance. I found that being unemployed did increase weekly religious attendance in a statistically significant manner.

What my findings show is that one cannot look at the national average and determine if the recession is affecting religious attendance; one has to look at those folks who have been adversely affected the recession to make that call. Frank Newport and the folks at Gallup seem to miss this point. They only look at the headline number and never dig deeper. Gallup simply is not looking at the right data to answer this question. I have not seen John Green's work from Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, but I suspect he too is looking at the headline weekly attendance number only. I would encourage Frank Newport, John Green, and other interested observers to take a look at my entire paper here.

What makes this frustrating is that I made this point to the Economist's correspondent who contacted me about this story. I have also contacted the folks at Gallup on this same issue back when this issue came up late last year.

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LA Daily News on the Business Cycle and Religiosity

The LA Daily News has an interesting article on the "spiritual tidal wave" being created by this recession. It is a nice complement to the earlier New York Times article on this topic and makes an even stronger case for the link between the business cycle and religiosity.

In Time of Economic Hardship, Houses of Worship Experience 'Spiritual Tidal Wave'

Throughout Los Angeles County and the nation, ministers and rabbis say they've seen dramatic increases in attendance in recent months as people worried about the worsening economy and turmoil in the world turn to religion.

Some houses of worship are using overflow rooms, hosting presentations to help people with their finances and giving sermons on the economic downturn, world events and Bible prophecy.

"There is a spiritual hunger and openness for God that I have not seen since 9-11," said Kirby, who estimates that his congregation has swelled from 550 to 750 worshippers in just the last four months.

"But this is a bigger and more sustained wave. The increase in church attendance after 9-11 only lasted a short time. But we have seen this now for four months and it's pretty much every Sunday. It's a spiritual tidal wave that is sustaining."

As attendance at churches in South America, Africa, China, Russia and other parts of the world is "exploding in growth," Jim Tolle, pastor of 25,000-member The Church On The Way in Van Nuys, said "pockets of revival or awakening" are also occurring in the United States.

[...]

In America, we used to feel like we were safe and secure as a nation," Durham said. "I think 9-11 took away safe and the recession has taken away secure. And so ... people are looking to faith and looking to God for reassurance and security."

[...]

At Shepherd of the Hills church in Porter Ranch, Senior Pastor Dudley C. Rutherford said he spent the fall preaching about Bible prophecy and has seen attendance grow from an average of 8,030 last year to 9,673 this year, a 17 percent increase. Rutherford attributes the increase to concerns about the economy and curiosity about world events...

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